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Sényő Carnifex vs Hidasnémeti — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
FT
3 – 0
Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
M. Vamos 80'
V. Kapacina 42', 17' (pen)
10/31/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 15Sényői Focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sényő Carnifex62%
×Draw18%
Hidasnémeti20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sényő Carnifex
2.50
Hidasnémeti
1.36

Sényő Carnifex creates 84% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sényő Carnifex
1.79
Hidasnémeti
1.16

allows per match

Sényő Carnifex
1.56
Hidasnémeti
3.21

finishing

Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par
Hidasnémeti+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sényő Carnifex ↓

Hidasnémeti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Sényő Carnifex or draw
80%
Sényő Carnifex or Hidasnémeti
82%
Draw or Hidasnémeti
38%

Winning margin

Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
40%
Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
92%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
71%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
45%
Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
74%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
39%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
76%
Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sényő Carnifex at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 111 matches

Hidasnémeti away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.79 + Hidasnémeti defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.50

Hidasnémeti attack 1.16 + Sényő Carnifex defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sényő Carnifex scores more
62%
level
18%
Hidasnémeti scores more
20%

Sényő Carnifex at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sényő Carnifex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
V. KapacinaPenalty
42'
V. Kapacina
80'
M. Vamos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sényő Carnifex vs Hidasnémeti

Sényő Carnifex beat Hidasnémeti 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on October 31, 2021.

Goals: V. Kapacina (17' pen, 42'), M. Vamos (80').

The match was played at Sényői Focipálya in Sényő.