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Hidasnémeti vs Sényő Carnifex — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
T. Molnar Martin 85'
G. Menougong 43' (pen)
P. Schmidt 90+3'
5/4/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 34Hidasnémeti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hidasnémeti30%
×Draw22%
Sényő Carnifex48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hidasnémeti
1.48
Sényő Carnifex
1.92

Sényő Carnifex creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 110 away

creates per match

Hidasnémeti
0.89
Sényő Carnifex
1.30

allows per match

Hidasnémeti
2.53
Sényő Carnifex
2.07

finishing

Hidasnémeti+0.00on par
Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hidasnémeti ↓

Sényő Carnifex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hidasnémeti or draw
52%
Hidasnémeti or Sényő Carnifex
78%
Draw or Sényő Carnifex
70%

Winning margin

Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
14%
Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
77%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
43%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
19%
Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
85%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
57%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
38%
Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hidasnémeti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Sényő Carnifex away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hidasnémeti attack 0.89 + Sényő Carnifex defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.30 + Hidasnémeti defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hidasnémeti scores more
30%
level
22%
Sényő Carnifex scores more
48%

Sényő Carnifex at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sényő Carnifex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
G. MenougongPenalty
85'
T. Molnar Martin
90+3'
P. Schmidt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Hidasnémeti 2–1 Sényő Carnifex

Hidasnémeti beat Sényő Carnifex 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on May 4, 2022.

Goals: G. Menougong (43' pen), T. Molnar Martin (85'), P. Schmidt (90+3').

The match was played at Hidasnémeti Sportpálya in Hidasnémeti.