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Sényő Carnifex vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
P. Schmidt 58'
3/26/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 27Sényői Focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sényő Carnifex41%
×Draw23%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sényő Carnifex
1.66
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sényő Carnifex
1.79
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

Sényő Carnifex
1.56
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sényő Carnifex ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sényő Carnifex or draw
64%
Sényő Carnifex or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
77%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
59%

Winning margin

Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
21%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
81%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
49%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
23%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
79%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
45%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
53%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sényő Carnifex at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 111 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.79 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Sényő Carnifex defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sényő Carnifex scores more
41%
level
23%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
36%

Sényő Carnifex at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sényő Carnifex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
P. Schmidt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sényő Carnifex vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE

Sényő Carnifex beat Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 26, 2023.

Goals: P. Schmidt (58').

The match was played at Sényői Focipálya in Sényő.