Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hajdúszoboszlói SE vs Sényő Carnifex — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
D. Constantinescu 79', 56'
B. Karika 50'
K. Kapacina 85'
9/11/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 8Bocskai Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE56%
×Draw23%
Sényő Carnifex22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.84
Sényő Carnifex
1.06

Hajdúszoboszlói SE creates 74% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 110 away

creates per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.61
Sényő Carnifex
1.30

allows per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
0.82
Sényő Carnifex
2.07

finishing

Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par
Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajdúszoboszlói SE ↓

Sényő Carnifex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hajdúszoboszlói SE or draw
78%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE or Sényő Carnifex
77%
Draw or Sényő Carnifex
44%

Winning margin

Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
32%
Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
84%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
55%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
28%
Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
65%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
29%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
72%
Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Sényő Carnifex away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.61 + Sényő Carnifex defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.30 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
56%
level
23%
Sényő Carnifex scores more
22%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
B. Karika
56'
D. Constantinescu
79'
D. Constantinescu
85'
K. Kapacina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3 – 1 Sényő Carnifex

Hajdúszoboszlói SE beat Sényő Carnifex 3-1 in NB III - Northeast on September 11, 2022.

Goals: B. Karika (50'), D. Constantinescu (56', 79'), K. Kapacina (85').

The match was played at Bocskai Stadion in Hajdúszoboszló.