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Senja vs Lillestrøm II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Senja
Senja
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lillestrøm II
Lillestrøm II
4/24/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 3Senja Storhall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Senja36%
×Draw20%
Lillestrøm II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senja
2.04
Lillestrøm II
2.27

Lillestrøm II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Senja
1.54
Lillestrøm II
1.31

allows per match

Senja
3.23
Lillestrøm II
2.54

finishing

Senja+0.00on par
Lillestrøm II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senja ↓

Lillestrøm II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Senja or draw
56%
Senja or Lillestrøm II
80%
Draw or Lillestrøm II
64%

Winning margin

Senja wins by 2+
19%
Lillestrøm II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Senja 1+ goals
87%
Senja 2+ goals
60%
Senja 3+ goals
33%
Lillestrøm II 1+ goals
90%
Lillestrøm II 2+ goals
66%
Lillestrøm II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Senja (draw refunded)
45%
Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senja at home — creates 1.54, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

Lillestrøm II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senja attack 1.54 + Lillestrøm II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.04

Lillestrøm II attack 1.31 + Senja defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Senja scores more
36%
level
20%
Lillestrøm II scores more
44%

Lillestrøm II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lillestrøm II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Senja 3–3 Lillestrøm II

Senja and Lillestrøm II drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Senja Storhall in Silsand.