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Lillestrøm II vs Senja — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Lillestrøm II
Lillestrøm II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Senja
Senja
9/25/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 22LSK-hallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lillestrøm II64%
×Draw18%
Senja18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillestrøm II
2.50
Senja
1.27

Lillestrøm II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lillestrøm II
2.08
Senja
1.00

allows per match

Lillestrøm II
1.54
Senja
2.92

finishing

Lillestrøm II+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrøm II ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Lillestrøm II or draw
82%
Lillestrøm II or Senja
82%
Draw or Senja
36%

Winning margin

Lillestrøm II wins by 2+
42%
Senja wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lillestrøm II 1+ goals
92%
Lillestrøm II 2+ goals
71%
Lillestrøm II 3+ goals
45%
Senja 1+ goals
72%
Senja 2+ goals
36%
Senja 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)
78%
Senja (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrøm II at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Senja away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrøm II attack 2.08 + Senja defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.50

Senja attack 1.00 + Lillestrøm II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lillestrøm II scores more
64%
level
18%
Senja scores more
18%

Lillestrøm II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lillestrøm II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lillestrøm II vs Senja

Lillestrøm II and Senja drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at LSK-hallen in Lillestrøm.