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Senja vs Alta — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Senja
Senja
PST
12:00
Alta
Alta
5/24/20212. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Senja Storhall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Senja36%
×Draw23%
Alta41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senja
1.54
Alta
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Senja
1.26
Alta
1.50

allows per match

Senja
1.79
Alta
1.82

finishing

Senja+0.00on par
Alta+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senja ↓

Alta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Senja or draw
59%
Senja or Alta
77%
Draw or Alta
64%

Winning margin

Senja wins by 2+
17%
Alta wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Senja 1+ goals
79%
Senja 2+ goals
45%
Senja 3+ goals
20%
Alta 1+ goals
81%
Alta 2+ goals
49%
Alta 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Senja (draw refunded)
47%
Alta (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senja at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Alta away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senja attack 1.26 + Alta defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Alta attack 1.50 + Senja defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Senja scores more
36%
level
23%
Alta scores more
41%

Alta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Senja face Alta (2. Division - Group 1)

2. Division - Group 1 returns with Senja hosting Alta. Match starts May 24, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Senja host Alta at Senja Storhall.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.