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Senja vs Alta — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Senja
Senja
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alta
Alta
10/26/20192. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Round 26Islandsbotn Kunstgress (Silsand, Lenvik)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Senja54%
×Draw21%
Alta25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senja
2.04
Alta
1.32

Senja creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 65 away

creates per match

Senja
1.62
Alta
1.42

allows per match

Senja
1.23
Alta
2.45

finishing

Senja+0.00on par
Alta+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senja ↓

Alta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Senja or draw
75%
Senja or Alta
79%
Draw or Alta
46%

Winning margin

Senja wins by 2+
32%
Alta wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Senja 1+ goals
87%
Senja 2+ goals
60%
Senja 3+ goals
33%
Alta 1+ goals
73%
Alta 2+ goals
38%
Alta 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Senja (draw refunded)
69%
Alta (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senja at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Alta away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.45 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senja attack 1.62 + Alta defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.04

Alta attack 1.42 + Senja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Senja scores more
54%
level
21%
Alta scores more
25%

Senja at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Senja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Senja 1–2 Alta

Alta beat Senja 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Islandsbotn Kunstgress (Silsand, Lenvik).