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Alta vs Senja — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Alta
Alta
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Senja
Senja
8/15/20202. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Finnmarkshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alta71%
×Draw16%
Senja13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alta
2.71
Senja
1.07

Alta creates 153% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Alta
2.33
Senja
0.57

allows per match

Alta
1.57
Senja
3.10

finishing

Alta+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Alta or draw
87%
Alta or Senja
84%
Draw or Senja
29%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+
50%
Senja wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals
93%
Alta 2+ goals
75%
Alta 3+ goals
50%
Senja 1+ goals
66%
Senja 2+ goals
29%
Senja 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)
85%
Senja (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Senja away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.33 + Senja defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.71

Senja attack 0.57 + Alta defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Alta scores more
71%
level
16%
Senja scores more
13%

Alta at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alta vs Senja

Alta beat Senja 4-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Finnmarkshallen in Alta.