Senegal W 3–1 Algeria W: Result & Stats

Senegal W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Algeria W

S. Diallo 90+2'

N. Nguenar 87'

M. Saw 30'

M. Dafeur 56'

7/14/2023

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Stade Lat Dior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Senegal W53%

×Draw24%

Algeria W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Senegal WExpected goals in this matchAlgeria W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.06

Senegal W

1.75

Algeria W

1.06

Senegal W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

0.79

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Senegal W

1.50

Algeria W

1.33

allows per match

Senegal W

0.79

Algeria W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Senegal W+0.00on par

Algeria W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senegal W ↓

Algeria W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Senegal W or draw

77%

Senegal W or Algeria W

76%

Draw or Algeria W

47%

Winning margin

Senegal W wins by 2+

30%

Algeria W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Senegal W 1+ goals

83%

Senegal W 2+ goals

52%

Senegal W 3+ goals

25%

Algeria W 1+ goals

65%

Algeria W 2+ goals

29%

Algeria W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Senegal W (draw refunded)

70%

Algeria W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senegal W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Algeria W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senegal W attack 1.50 + Algeria W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Algeria W attack 1.33 + Senegal W defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Senegal W scores more

53%

level

24%

Algeria W scores more

23%

Senegal W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Senegal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

M. Saw

56'

M. Dafeur

87'

N. Nguenar

90+2'

S. Diallo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff