Algeria W 0–3 Senegal W: Result & Stats

Algeria W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Senegal W

N. Casset 72'

H. Diallo 67'

N. Ndiaye 56'

7/1/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesStade Mustapha Tchaker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Algeria W54%

×Draw26%

Senegal W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Algeria WExpected goals in this matchSenegal W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.81

Algeria W

1.50

Senegal W

0.81

Algeria W creates 85% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

0.93

0.70

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Algeria W

1.40

Senegal W

0.93

allows per match

Algeria W

0.70

Senegal W

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algeria W+0.00on par

Senegal W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeria W ↓

Senegal W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Algeria W or draw

80%

Algeria W or Senegal W

74%

Draw or Senegal W

46%

Winning margin

Algeria W wins by 2+

28%

Senegal W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Algeria W 1+ goals

78%

Algeria W 2+ goals

44%

Algeria W 3+ goals

19%

Senegal W 1+ goals

56%

Senegal W 2+ goals

19%

Senegal W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Algeria W (draw refunded)

73%

Senegal W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeria W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Senegal W away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeria W attack 1.40 + Senegal W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Senegal W attack 0.93 + Algeria W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Algeria W scores more

54%

level

26%

Senegal W scores more

20%

Algeria W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Algeria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

N. Ndiaye

67'

H. Diallo

72'

N. Casset

Algeria

Senegal

23

4

5

13

2

24

14

10

7

17

⚽

Diallo

9

⚽

1

7

17

15

18

22

13

8

20

26

9

Manager: Farid Benstiti

Algeria W substitutes

4Khezami3Guellati12Boubezari2D'oria5Alouache10Karchouni24Naili6Bethi21Dafeur11Boussaha14Boutaleb25Ikene16Lounas23Haleyi

Manager: Serigné Mame Moussa Cissé

Senegal W substitutes

16FayeSene3DembeleCissokho18CamaraNdaw11Balde12SagnaDrame19SeckCasset15Bassene