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Šencur vs Postojna — 3. SNL - West 2020

Šencur
Šencur
CANC
14:00
Postojna
Postojna
5/30/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Šencur61%
×Draw21%
Postojna18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šencur
1.99
Postojna
0.96

Šencur creates 107% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

creates per match

Šencur
2.09
Postojna
0.78

allows per match

Šencur
1.14
Postojna
1.89

finishing

Šencur+0.00on par
Postojna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šencur ↓

Postojna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Šencur or draw
82%
Šencur or Postojna
79%
Draw or Postojna
39%

Winning margin

Šencur wins by 2+
37%
Postojna wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Šencur 1+ goals
86%
Šencur 2+ goals
59%
Šencur 3+ goals
32%
Postojna 1+ goals
62%
Postojna 2+ goals
25%
Postojna 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Šencur (draw refunded)
78%
Postojna (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šencur at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Postojna away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šencur attack 2.09 + Postojna defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.99

Postojna attack 0.78 + Šencur defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Šencur scores more
61%
level
21%
Postojna scores more
18%

Šencur at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Šencur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Šencur vs Postojna — Match Preview

Šencur face Postojna on May 30, 2021 in this 3. SNL - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.