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Postojna vs Šencur — 3. SNL - West 2020

Postojna
Postojna
FT
1 – 2
Šencur
Šencur
5/8/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 13Športni park Postojna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Postojna32%
×Draw23%
Šencur44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Postojna
1.46
Šencur
1.74

Šencur creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Postojna
1.80
Šencur
1.87

allows per match

Postojna
1.60
Šencur
1.13

finishing

Postojna+0.00on par
Šencur+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Postojna ↓

Šencur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Postojna or draw
56%
Postojna or Šencur
77%
Draw or Šencur
68%

Winning margin

Postojna wins by 2+
15%
Šencur wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Postojna 1+ goals
77%
Postojna 2+ goals
43%
Postojna 3+ goals
18%
Šencur 1+ goals
82%
Šencur 2+ goals
52%
Šencur 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Postojna (draw refunded)
42%
Šencur (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Postojna at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Šencur away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Postojna attack 1.80 + Šencur defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Šencur attack 1.87 + Postojna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Postojna scores more
32%
level
23%
Šencur scores more
44%

Šencur at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Šencur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - West: Postojna 1–2 Šencur

Šencur beat Postojna 2-1 in 3. SNL - West on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Športni park Postojna in Postojna.