Semendrija 1924 1–0 RFK Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Semendrija 1924

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

RFK Novi Sad

10/1/2023

Prva Liga · Round 10Sportski Kompleks FK Smederevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Semendrija 192459%

×Draw23%

RFK Novi Sad18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Semendrija 1924Expected goals in this matchRFK Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.84

Semendrija 1924

1.75

RFK Novi Sad

0.84

Semendrija 1924 creates 108% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 23 away

1.15

creates per match

0.83

0.86

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Semendrija 1924

1.15

RFK Novi Sad

0.83

allows per match

Semendrija 1924

0.86

RFK Novi Sad

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Semendrija 1924 ↓

RFK Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Semendrija 1924 or draw

82%

Semendrija 1924 or RFK Novi Sad

77%

Draw or RFK Novi Sad

41%

Winning margin

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+

33%

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals

83%

Semendrija 1924 2+ goals

52%

Semendrija 1924 3+ goals

25%

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals

57%

RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals

21%

RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)

77%

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Semendrija 1924 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 72 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Semendrija 1924 attack 1.15 + RFK Novi Sad defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.75

RFK Novi Sad attack 0.83 + Semendrija 1924 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Semendrija 1924 scores more

59%

level

23%

RFK Novi Sad scores more

18%

Semendrija 1924 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Semendrija 1924 vs RFK Novi Sad

Semendrija 1924 beat RFK Novi Sad 1-0 in Prva Liga on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski Kompleks FK Smederevo in Smederevo.

Semendrija 1924 vs RFK Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Semendrija 1924 vs RFK Novi Sad