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RFK Novi Sad vs Semendrija 1924 — Prva Liga 2018

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Semendrija 1924
Semendrija 1924
3/17/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 25Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

RFK Novi Sad42%
×Draw27%
Semendrija 192432%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
1.36
Semendrija 1924
1.15

RFK Novi Sad creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 71 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Semendrija 1924
0.96

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Semendrija 1924
1.39

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Semendrija 1924 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
68%
RFK Novi Sad or Semendrija 1924
73%
Draw or Semendrija 1924
58%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
19%
Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
74%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
39%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
16%
Semendrija 1924 1+ goals
68%
Semendrija 1924 2+ goals
32%
Semendrija 1924 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
57%
Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Semendrija 1924 away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.33 + Semendrija 1924 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Semendrija 1924 attack 0.96 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
42%
level
27%
Semendrija 1924 scores more
32%

RFK Novi Sad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RFK Novi Sad vs Semendrija 1924

Semendrija 1924 beat RFK Novi Sad 1-0 in Prva Liga on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Pivara Stadion in Čelarevo.