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Semendrija 1924 vs OFK Vršac — Prva Liga 2018

Semendrija 1924
Semendrija 1924
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
10/25/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 15Stadion FK Smederevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Semendrija 192445%
×Draw29%
OFK Vršac26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Semendrija 1924
1.25
OFK Vršac
0.88

Semendrija 1924 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 73 away

creates per match

Semendrija 1924
1.15
OFK Vršac
0.89

allows per match

Semendrija 1924
0.86
OFK Vršac
1.34

finishing

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Semendrija 1924 ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Semendrija 1924 or draw
74%
Semendrija 1924 or OFK Vršac
71%
Draw or OFK Vršac
55%

Winning margin

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+
20%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals
71%
Semendrija 1924 2+ goals
36%
Semendrija 1924 3+ goals
13%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
59%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
22%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)
63%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Semendrija 1924 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 72 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Semendrija 1924 attack 1.15 + OFK Vršac defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

OFK Vršac attack 0.89 + Semendrija 1924 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Semendrija 1924 scores more
45%
level
29%
OFK Vršac scores more
26%

Semendrija 1924 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Semendrija 1924 vs OFK Vršac

Semendrija 1924 beat OFK Vršac 3-0 in Prva Liga on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Smederevo in Smederevo.