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OFK Vršac vs Semendrija 1924 — Prva Liga 2018

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Semendrija 1924
Semendrija 1924
4/5/2026Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 30Gradski stadion Vrsac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

OFK Vršac45%
×Draw30%
Semendrija 192425%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
1.21
Semendrija 1924
0.82

OFK Vršac creates 48% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 71 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
1.04
Semendrija 1924
0.96

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.68
Semendrija 1924
1.39

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Semendrija 1924 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
75%
OFK Vršac or Semendrija 1924
70%
Draw or Semendrija 1924
55%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
20%
Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
70%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
34%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
12%
Semendrija 1924 1+ goals
56%
Semendrija 1924 2+ goals
20%
Semendrija 1924 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
64%
Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.68 · 73 matches

Semendrija 1924 away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 1.04 + Semendrija 1924 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Semendrija 1924 attack 0.96 + OFK Vršac defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
45%
level
30%
Semendrija 1924 scores more
25%

OFK Vršac at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: OFK Vršac 0–0 Semendrija 1924

OFK Vršac and Semendrija 1924 drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Vrsac in Vrsac.