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Semendrija 1924 vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Semendrija 1924
Semendrija 1924
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
3/12/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 26Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Semendrija 192435%
×Draw32%
Mladost Novi Sad33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Semendrija 1924
0.96
Mladost Novi Sad
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 55 away

creates per match

Semendrija 1924
1.15
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

Semendrija 1924
0.86
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Semendrija 1924 ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Semendrija 1924 or draw
67%
Semendrija 1924 or Mladost Novi Sad
68%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
65%

Winning margin

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+
13%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals
62%
Semendrija 1924 2+ goals
25%
Semendrija 1924 3+ goals
7%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
60%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
23%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)
52%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Semendrija 1924 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 72 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Semendrija 1924 attack 1.15 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.96

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Semendrija 1924 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Semendrija 1924 scores more
35%
level
32%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
33%

Semendrija 1924 at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Semendrija 1924 vs Mladost Novi Sad

Semendrija 1924 and Mladost Novi Sad drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on March 12, 2025.

The match was played at Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost in Pančevo.