Mladost Novi Sad 1–1 Semendrija 1924

Mladost Novi Sad

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Semendrija 1924

12/14/2023

Prva Liga · Round 17Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad46%

×Draw28%

Semendrija 192426%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Novi SadExpected goals in this matchSemendrija 1924

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.93

Mladost Novi Sad

1.34

Semendrija 1924

0.93

Mladost Novi Sad creates 44% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 71 away

1.29

creates per match

0.96

0.89

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad

1.29

Semendrija 1924

0.96

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad

0.89

Semendrija 1924

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Semendrija 1924 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw

74%

Mladost Novi Sad or Semendrija 1924

72%

Draw or Semendrija 1924

54%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

22%

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

74%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

39%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

15%

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals

61%

Semendrija 1924 2+ goals

24%

Semendrija 1924 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

64%

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Semendrija 1924 away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.29 + Semendrija 1924 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Semendrija 1924 attack 0.96 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

46%

level

28%

Semendrija 1924 scores more

26%

Mladost Novi Sad at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff