Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Semendrija 1924 vs Mihajlovac — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Semendrija 1924
Semendrija 1924
FT
2 – 1
Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
4/2/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 19Sportski Kompleks FK Smederevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Semendrija 192468%
×Draw20%
Mihajlovac12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Semendrija 1924
2.03
Mihajlovac
0.73

Semendrija 1924 creates 178% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 30 away

creates per match

Semendrija 1924
2.09
Mihajlovac
0.60

allows per match

Semendrija 1924
0.87
Mihajlovac
1.97

finishing

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par
Mihajlovac+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Semendrija 1924 ↓

Mihajlovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Semendrija 1924 or draw
88%
Semendrija 1924 or Mihajlovac
80%
Draw or Mihajlovac
32%

Winning margin

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+
42%
Mihajlovac wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals
87%
Semendrija 1924 2+ goals
60%
Semendrija 1924 3+ goals
33%
Mihajlovac 1+ goals
52%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
17%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)
84%
Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Semendrija 1924 at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Mihajlovac away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Semendrija 1924 attack 2.09 + Mihajlovac defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.03

Mihajlovac attack 0.60 + Semendrija 1924 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Semendrija 1924 scores more
68%
level
20%
Mihajlovac scores more
12%

Semendrija 1924 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Semendrija 1924 vs Mihajlovac

Semendrija 1924 beat Mihajlovac 2-1 in Srpska Liga - West on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski Kompleks FK Smederevo in Smederevo.