Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mihajlovac vs Semendrija 1924 — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
FT
1 – 4
Semendrija 1924
Semendrija 1924
9/4/2022Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 4Stadion FK Seljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mihajlovac29%
×Draw25%
Semendrija 192446%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mihajlovac
1.15
Semendrija 1924
1.52

Semendrija 1924 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 47 away

creates per match

Mihajlovac
1.20
Semendrija 1924
1.45

allows per match

Mihajlovac
1.60
Semendrija 1924
1.09

finishing

Mihajlovac+0.00on par
Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mihajlovac ↓

Semendrija 1924 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mihajlovac or draw
54%
Mihajlovac or Semendrija 1924
75%
Draw or Semendrija 1924
71%

Winning margin

Mihajlovac wins by 2+
11%
Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Mihajlovac 1+ goals
68%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
32%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
11%
Semendrija 1924 1+ goals
78%
Semendrija 1924 2+ goals
45%
Semendrija 1924 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
39%
Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mihajlovac at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Semendrija 1924 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mihajlovac attack 1.20 + Semendrija 1924 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Semendrija 1924 attack 1.45 + Mihajlovac defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mihajlovac scores more
29%
level
25%
Semendrija 1924 scores more
46%

Semendrija 1924 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mihajlovac vs Semendrija 1924

Semendrija 1924 beat Mihajlovac 4-1 in Srpska Liga - West on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Seljak in Mihajlovac.