Semendrija 1924 0–1 Metalac GM: Result & Stats

Semendrija 1924

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Metalac GM

11/30/2019

Prva Liga · Round 22Sportski Kompleks FK Smederevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Semendrija 192444%

×Draw30%

Metalac GM26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Semendrija 1924Expected goals in this matchMetalac GM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.86

Semendrija 1924

1.21

Metalac GM

0.86

Semendrija 1924 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 70 away

1.15

creates per match

0.86

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Semendrija 1924

1.15

Metalac GM

0.86

allows per match

Semendrija 1924

0.86

Metalac GM

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Semendrija 1924 ↓

Metalac GM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Semendrija 1924 or draw

74%

Semendrija 1924 or Metalac GM

70%

Draw or Metalac GM

56%

Winning margin

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+

19%

Metalac GM wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals

70%

Semendrija 1924 2+ goals

34%

Semendrija 1924 3+ goals

12%

Metalac GM 1+ goals

58%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

21%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)

63%

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Semendrija 1924 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 72 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Semendrija 1924 attack 1.15 + Metalac GM defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Metalac GM attack 0.86 + Semendrija 1924 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Semendrija 1924 scores more

44%

level

30%

Metalac GM scores more

26%

Semendrija 1924 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff