Metalac GM 0–1 Semendrija 1924: Result & Stats

Metalac GM

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Semendrija 1924

9/4/2019

Prva Liga · Round 7Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Metalac GM49%

×Draw27%

Semendrija 192424%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalac GMExpected goals in this matchSemendrija 1924

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.91

Metalac GM

1.44

Semendrija 1924

0.91

Metalac GM creates 58% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 71 away

1.49

creates per match

0.96

0.86

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Metalac GM

1.49

Semendrija 1924

0.96

allows per match

Metalac GM

0.86

Semendrija 1924

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

Semendrija 1924 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw

76%

Metalac GM or Semendrija 1924

73%

Draw or Semendrija 1924

51%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+

24%

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals

76%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

42%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

18%

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals

60%

Semendrija 1924 2+ goals

23%

Semendrija 1924 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

67%

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 71 matches

Semendrija 1924 away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.49 + Semendrija 1924 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Semendrija 1924 attack 0.96 + Metalac GM defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Metalac GM scores more

49%

level

27%

Semendrija 1924 scores more

24%

Metalac GM at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff