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Semendrija 1924 vs Jedinstvo Ub — Prva Liga 2018

Semendrija 1924
Semendrija 1924
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
9/28/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 11Stadion FK Smederevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Semendrija 192443%
×Draw29%
Jedinstvo Ub28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Semendrija 1924
1.25
Jedinstvo Ub
0.96

Semendrija 1924 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 55 away

creates per match

Semendrija 1924
1.15
Jedinstvo Ub
1.05

allows per match

Semendrija 1924
0.86
Jedinstvo Ub
1.35

finishing

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Semendrija 1924 ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Semendrija 1924 or draw
72%
Semendrija 1924 or Jedinstvo Ub
71%
Draw or Jedinstvo Ub
57%

Winning margin

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+
19%
Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals
71%
Semendrija 1924 2+ goals
36%
Semendrija 1924 3+ goals
13%
Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
62%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
25%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)
60%
Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Semendrija 1924 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 72 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Semendrija 1924 attack 1.15 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.05 + Semendrija 1924 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Semendrija 1924 scores more
43%
level
29%
Jedinstvo Ub scores more
28%

Semendrija 1924 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Semendrija 1924 vs Jedinstvo Ub

Semendrija 1924 and Jedinstvo Ub drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Smederevo in Smederevo.