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Jedinstvo Ub vs Semendrija 1924 — Prva Liga 2018

Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Semendrija 1924
Semendrija 1924
5/24/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Championship Round - 7Stadion Dragan Dzajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub48%
×Draw26%
Semendrija 192425%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Ub
1.48
Semendrija 1924
0.99

Jedinstvo Ub creates 49% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 71 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.56
Semendrija 1924
0.96

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.02
Semendrija 1924
1.39

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par
Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

Semendrija 1924 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw
75%
Jedinstvo Ub or Semendrija 1924
74%
Draw or Semendrija 1924
52%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
24%
Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
77%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
43%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
19%
Semendrija 1924 1+ goals
63%
Semendrija 1924 2+ goals
26%
Semendrija 1924 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
66%
Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Semendrija 1924 away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.56 + Semendrija 1924 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Semendrija 1924 attack 0.96 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more
48%
level
26%
Semendrija 1924 scores more
25%

Jedinstvo Ub at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Ub vs Semendrija 1924

Jedinstvo Ub beat Semendrija 1924 2-1 in Prva Liga on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Dzajić in Ub.