Semendrija 1924 2–1 Dinamo Vranje: Result & Stats

Semendrija 1924

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Vranje

10/26/2019

Prva Liga · Round 16Sportski Kompleks FK Smederevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Semendrija 192446%

×Draw29%

Dinamo Vranje25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Semendrija 1924Expected goals in this matchDinamo Vranje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.87

Semendrija 1924

1.27

Dinamo Vranje

0.87

Semendrija 1924 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 33 away

1.15

creates per match

0.88

0.86

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Semendrija 1924

1.15

Dinamo Vranje

0.88

allows per match

Semendrija 1924

0.86

Dinamo Vranje

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Semendrija 1924 ↓

Dinamo Vranje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Semendrija 1924 or draw

75%

Semendrija 1924 or Dinamo Vranje

71%

Draw or Dinamo Vranje

54%

Winning margin

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+

21%

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals

72%

Semendrija 1924 2+ goals

36%

Semendrija 1924 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

58%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

22%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)

64%

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Semendrija 1924 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 72 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Semendrija 1924 attack 1.15 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.88 + Semendrija 1924 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Semendrija 1924 scores more

46%

level

29%

Dinamo Vranje scores more

25%

Semendrija 1924 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff