Dinamo Vranje 3–1 Semendrija 1924: Result & Stats

Dinamo Vranje

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Semendrija 1924

F. Bajić 72'

N. Jovanović 65'

M. Stevanović 58' (pen)

V. Jovković 44'

8/4/2019

Prva Liga · Round 1Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Vranje44%

×Draw26%

Semendrija 192430%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VranjeExpected goals in this matchSemendrija 1924

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.15

Dinamo Vranje

1.44

Semendrija 1924

1.15

Dinamo Vranje creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 71 away

1.50

creates per match

0.96

1.34

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.50

Semendrija 1924

0.96

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.34

Semendrija 1924

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Semendrija 1924 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw

70%

Dinamo Vranje or Semendrija 1924

74%

Draw or Semendrija 1924

56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

21%

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

42%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

18%

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals

68%

Semendrija 1924 2+ goals

32%

Semendrija 1924 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

59%

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Semendrija 1924 away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 1.50 + Semendrija 1924 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Semendrija 1924 attack 0.96 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more

44%

level

26%

Semendrija 1924 scores more

30%

Dinamo Vranje at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

V. Jovković

46'

M. Popović← S. Seck

46'

N. Jovanović← Đ. Veličković

58'

M. StevanovićPenalty

65'

N. Jovanović

66'

D. Kuveljić← V. Jovković

72'

F. Bajić

73'

M. Đorđević← M. Marković

75'

N. Stojanović← N. Stojković

77'

M. Antić← F. Bajić

Dinamo

Semendrija

Trifunovi

▼

Marković

Lepojević

▼

Stojković

Matijević

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: U. Kalinić

46'▲M. Popović←▼S. Seck

46'▲N. Jovanović←▼Đ. Veličković

77'▲M. Antić←▼F. Bajić

Dinamo Vranje substitutes

PopovićJovanovićAntić

Manager: N. Puača

66'▲D. Kuveljić←▼V. Jovković

73'▲M. Đorđević←▼M. Marković

75'▲N. Stojanović←▼N. Stojković

Semendrija 1924 substitutes

KuveljićĐorđevićStojanović