Semendrija 1924 3–2 Borac Cacak: Result & Stats

Semendrija 1924

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Borac Cacak

V. Balabanović 83' (pen)

M. Đokić 68'

M. Milisavljević 39'

D. Radosavljević 12'

U. Kojić 5'

8/25/2024

Prva Liga · Round 4Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Semendrija 192446%

×Draw28%

Borac Cacak26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Semendrija 1924Expected goals in this matchBorac Cacak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.93

Semendrija 1924

1.35

Borac Cacak

0.93

Semendrija 1924 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 70 away

1.20

creates per match

1.03

0.83

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Semendrija 1924

1.20

Borac Cacak

1.03

allows per match

Semendrija 1924

0.83

Borac Cacak

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Semendrija 1924 ↓

Borac Cacak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Semendrija 1924 or draw

74%

Semendrija 1924 or Borac Cacak

72%

Draw or Borac Cacak

54%

Winning margin

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+

22%

Borac Cacak wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals

74%

Semendrija 1924 2+ goals

39%

Semendrija 1924 3+ goals

15%

Borac Cacak 1+ goals

61%

Borac Cacak 2+ goals

24%

Borac Cacak 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)

64%

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Semendrija 1924 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Borac Cacak away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Semendrija 1924 attack 1.20 + Borac Cacak defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Borac Cacak attack 1.03 + Semendrija 1924 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Semendrija 1924 scores more

46%

level

28%

Borac Cacak scores more

26%

Semendrija 1924 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

U. Kojić

12'

D. Radosavljević

25'

Đ. Jovanović← P. Mališić

26'

N. Milekic

36'

L. Jankovic

39'

M. Milisavljević

40'

V. Balabanovic

57'

A. Markovic

63'

N. Stevanovic

63'

K. Đorđević← B. Krstić

63'

I. Adamu← N. Milekić

68'

M. Đokić

73'

V. Mitosevic

75'

V. Bogićević← S. Kovačević

75'

N. Marinković← D. Radosavljević

82'

F. Stanic

83'

V. BalabanovićPenalty

85'

M. Kostić← L. Janković

85'

L. Lukovič← M. Milisavljević

86'

I. Adamu

89'

N. Ignjatovic

Semendrija

Borac

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: D. Radojičić

25'▲Đ. Jovanović←▼P. Mališić

63'▲K. Đorđević←▼B. Krstić

85'▲M. Kostić←▼L. Janković

85'▲L. Lukovič←▼M. Milisavljević

Semendrija 1924 substitutes

JovanovićĐorđevićKostićLukovič

Manager: D. Rakočević

63'▲I. Adamu←▼N. Milekić

75'▲V. Bogićević←▼S. Kovačević

75'▲N. Marinković←▼D. Radosavljević

Borac Cacak substitutes

AdamuBogićevićMarinković