Borac Cacak 4–0 Semendrija 1924: Result & Stats

Borac Cacak

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Semendrija 1924

U. Nenadović 90+2'

B. Tomić 51' (pen)

S. Đokić 45+1' (pen)

U. Kojić 11'

12/8/2024

Prva Liga · Round 19Stadion Borca kraj Morave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Borac Cacak44%

×Draw29%

Semendrija 192428%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac CacakExpected goals in this matchSemendrija 1924

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.93

Borac Cacak

1.25

Semendrija 1924

0.93

Borac Cacak creates 34% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 67 away

1.20

creates per match

0.97

0.89

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Borac Cacak

1.20

Semendrija 1924

0.97

allows per match

Borac Cacak

0.89

Semendrija 1924

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Cacak ↓

Semendrija 1924 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Borac Cacak or draw

72%

Borac Cacak or Semendrija 1924

71%

Draw or Semendrija 1924

56%

Winning margin

Borac Cacak wins by 2+

20%

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Borac Cacak 1+ goals

71%

Borac Cacak 2+ goals

36%

Borac Cacak 3+ goals

13%

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals

61%

Semendrija 1924 2+ goals

24%

Semendrija 1924 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)

61%

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Cacak at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.89 · 71 matches

Semendrija 1924 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Cacak attack 1.20 + Semendrija 1924 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Semendrija 1924 attack 0.97 + Borac Cacak defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Borac Cacak scores more

44%

level

29%

Semendrija 1924 scores more

28%

Borac Cacak at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

U. Kojić

21'

L. Jankovic

36'

V. Djokic

45+1'

S. ĐokićPenalty

46'

Đ. Popović← Đ. Jovanović

51'

S. Jovic

51'

B. TomićPenalty

59'

V. Balabanović← E. Ogeda Oregbe

59'

B. Krstić← V. Mitošević

66'

A. Markovic

70'

Đ. Mitić← L. Janković

71'

N. Grbović← S. Đokić

71'

D. Radosavljević← M. Kolarević

78'

V. Balabanovic

78'

N. Stevanovic

78'

K. Đorđević← V. Vukojević

79'

N. Milekić← S. Kovačević

79'

N. Vujičić← S. Fićović

84'

N. Milekic

84'

U. Nenadović← U. Kojić

90+2'

U. Nenadović

Borac

Semendrija

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Đokić

⚽

▼

Kojić

Manager: D. Rakočević

71'▲N. Grbović←▼S. Đokić

71'▲D. Radosavljević←▼M. Kolarević

79'▲N. Milekić←▼S. Kovačević

79'▲N. Vujičić←▼S. Fićović

84'▲U. Nenadović←▼U. Kojić

Borac Cacak substitutes

GrbovićRadosavljevićMilekićVujičićNenadović

Manager: J. Golić

46'▲Đ. Popović←▼Đ. Jovanović

59'▲V. Balabanović←▼E. Ogeda Oregbe

59'▲B. Krstić←▼V. Mitošević

70'▲Đ. Mitić←▼L. Janković

78'▲K. Đorđević←▼V. Vukojević

Semendrija 1924 substitutes

PopovićBalabanovićKrstićMitićĐorđević