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Selfoss vs KFG — 2. Deild 2026

Selfoss
Selfoss
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
KFG
KFG
R. Sveinsson 90+1'
J. Petursson 74'
J. Barddal 59'
B. Hauksson 9'
7/8/20242. Deild2. Deild · Round 11JÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Selfoss63%
×Draw19%
KFG19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selfoss
2.45
KFG
1.28

Selfoss creates 91% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 50 away

creates per match

Selfoss
2.43
KFG
1.24

allows per match

Selfoss
1.32
KFG
2.46

finishing

Selfoss+0.00on par
KFG+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selfoss ↓

KFG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Selfoss or draw
81%
Selfoss or KFG
81%
Draw or KFG
37%

Winning margin

Selfoss wins by 2+
41%
KFG wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Selfoss 1+ goals
91%
Selfoss 2+ goals
70%
Selfoss 3+ goals
44%
KFG 1+ goals
72%
KFG 2+ goals
37%
KFG 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Selfoss (draw refunded)
77%
KFG (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selfoss at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.32 · 37 matches

KFG away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selfoss attack 2.43 + KFG defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.45

KFG attack 1.24 + Selfoss defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Selfoss scores more
63%
level
19%
KFG scores more
19%

Selfoss at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Selfoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
B. Hauksson
59'
J. Barddal
74'
J. Petursson
90+1'
R. Sveinsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Selfoss 2 – 2 KFG

Selfoss and KFG drew 2-2 in 2. Deild on July 8, 2024.

Goals: B. Hauksson (9'), J. Barddal (59'), J. Petursson (74'), R. Sveinsson (90+1').

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn in Selfoss, Árborg.