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KFG vs Selfoss — 2. Deild 2026

KFG
KFG
FT
1 – 3
Selfoss
Selfoss
T. F. Ingolfsson 60'
H. Tokic 69', 62'
J. Hermannsson 22'
8/21/20192. Deild2. Deild · Round 17Samsung völlurinn (Garðabær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

KFG33%
×Draw21%
Selfoss46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFG
1.72
Selfoss
2.06

Selfoss creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 39 away

creates per match

KFG
2.12
Selfoss
1.95

allows per match

KFG
2.16
Selfoss
1.31

finishing

KFG+0.00on par
Selfoss+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFG ↓

Selfoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

KFG or draw
54%
KFG or Selfoss
79%
Draw or Selfoss
67%

Winning margin

KFG wins by 2+
16%
Selfoss wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

KFG 1+ goals
82%
KFG 2+ goals
51%
KFG 3+ goals
25%
Selfoss 1+ goals
87%
Selfoss 2+ goals
61%
Selfoss 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

KFG (draw refunded)
42%
Selfoss (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFG at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.16 · 51 matches

Selfoss away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.31 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFG attack 2.12 + Selfoss defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.72

Selfoss attack 1.95 + KFG defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KFG scores more
33%
level
21%
Selfoss scores more
46%

Selfoss at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Selfoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
J. Hermannsson
60'
T. F. Ingolfsson
62'
H. Tokic
69'
H. Tokic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: KFG 1–3 Selfoss

Selfoss beat KFG 3-1 in 2. Deild on August 21, 2019.

Goals: J. Hermannsson (22'), T. F. Ingolfsson (60'), H. Tokic (62', 69').

The match was played at Samsung völlurinn (Garðabær).