Selfoss 1–4 Keflavik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Selfoss

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Keflavik

J. Bodvarsson 26' (pen)

S. Ljubicic 90+3'

M. Mudrazija 90'

M. Al Ghoul 54'

E. Ragnarsson 34'

9/13/2025

1. Deild · Round 22JÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Selfoss38%

×Draw22%

Keflavik40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SelfossExpected goals in this matchKeflavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.77

Selfoss

1.73

Keflavik

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

1.64

creates per match

1.76

1.79

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Selfoss

1.64

Keflavik

1.76

allows per match

Selfoss

1.79

Keflavik

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Selfoss+0.00on par

Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selfoss ↓

Keflavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Selfoss or draw

60%

Selfoss or Keflavik

78%

Draw or Keflavik

62%

Winning margin

Selfoss wins by 2+

19%

Keflavik wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Selfoss 1+ goals

82%

Selfoss 2+ goals

52%

Selfoss 3+ goals

25%

Keflavik 1+ goals

83%

Keflavik 2+ goals

53%

Keflavik 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Selfoss (draw refunded)

49%

Keflavik (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selfoss at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Keflavik away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selfoss attack 1.64 + Keflavik defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Keflavik attack 1.76 + Selfoss defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Selfoss scores more

38%

level

22%

Keflavik scores more

40%

Keflavik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

M. Brigic

26'

J. BodvarssonPenalty

34'

E. Ragnarsson

54'

M. Al Ghoul

57'

E. Sverrisson

65'

A. Birgisson← A. Birgisson

65'

E. Sverrisson← E. Sverrisson

69'

K. Sigfusson← K. Sigfusson

70'

D. Einarsson

70'

S. Magnusson

71'

R. Sveinsson

76'

F. Brynjolfsson← F. Brynjolfsson

76'

B. Bergsson← B. Bergsson

81'

E. Bjarnason← E. Ragnarsson

86'

V. Gautason← V. Gautason

90'

M. Mudrazija↳ S. Ljubicic

90+3'

S. Ljubicic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff