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Keflavik vs Selfoss — League #168 2026

Keflavik
Keflavik
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Selfoss
Selfoss
S. Ljubicic 49', 42', 28'
2/28/2025League #168League #168 · Group Stage - 4Nettóhöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Keflavik81%
×Draw13%
Selfoss7%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keflavik
2.85
Selfoss
0.71

Keflavik creates 301% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Keflavik
2.71
Selfoss
0.00

allows per match

Keflavik
1.43
Selfoss
3.00

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par
Selfoss+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

Selfoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw
93%
Keflavik or Selfoss
87%
Draw or Selfoss
19%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+
61%
Selfoss wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals
94%
Keflavik 2+ goals
77%
Keflavik 3+ goals
53%
Selfoss 1+ goals
51%
Selfoss 2+ goals
16%
Selfoss 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)
92%
Selfoss (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Selfoss away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.71 + Selfoss defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.85

Selfoss attack 0.00 + Keflavik defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Keflavik scores more
81%
level
13%
Selfoss scores more
7%

Keflavik at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
F. Elvarsson
28'
S. Ljubicic
42'
N. Gil
42'
S. Ljubicic
46'
H. Willard← H. Willard
49'
S. Ljubicic
53'
E. Bjarnason
56'
E. Ragnarsson← E. Ragnarsson
56'
K. Sigfusson← K. Sigfusson
56'
M. Al-Ghoul← M. Al-Ghoul
60'
A. Vokes
63'
R. Sveinsson
63'
E. K. Heidarsson← E. K. Heidarsson
63'
E. Bjarnason← B. Brynjarsson
72'
E. Einarsson← E. Einarsson
72'
D. Josefsson← D. Josefsson
72'
S. Ljubicic← B. B. Gudnason

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Keflavik vs Selfoss

Keflavik beat Selfoss 3-0 in League #168 on February 28, 2025.

Goals: S. Ljubicic (28', 42', 49').

The match was played at Nettóhöllin in Keflavík, Reykjanesbær.