Selfoss 1–2 Haukar: Result & Stats | 2. Deild

Selfoss

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Haukar

D. Josefsson 13'

F. Brynjolfsson 39', 24'

6/24/2024

2. Deild · Round 8JÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Selfoss51%

×Draw21%

Haukar28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SelfossExpected goals in this matchHaukar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.48

Selfoss

2.07

Haukar

1.48

Selfoss creates 40% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

2.50

creates per match

1.68

1.29

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Selfoss

2.50

Haukar

1.68

allows per match

Selfoss

1.29

Haukar

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Selfoss+0.00on par

Haukar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selfoss ↓

Haukar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Selfoss or draw

72%

Selfoss or Haukar

79%

Draw or Haukar

49%

Winning margin

Selfoss wins by 2+

30%

Haukar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Selfoss 1+ goals

87%

Selfoss 2+ goals

61%

Selfoss 3+ goals

34%

Haukar 1+ goals

77%

Haukar 2+ goals

43%

Haukar 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Selfoss (draw refunded)

65%

Haukar (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selfoss at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Haukar away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selfoss attack 2.50 + Haukar defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.07

Haukar attack 1.68 + Selfoss defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Selfoss scores more

51%

level

21%

Haukar scores more

28%

Selfoss at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Selfoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

D. Josefsson

24'

F. Brynjolfsson

39'

F. Brynjolfsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff