Haukar 1–2 Selfoss: Result & Stats | 2. Deild

Haukar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Selfoss

T. E. Geirsson 90+3'

G. Zamorano 55', 2'

8/26/2024

2. Deild · Round 19BIRTU völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Haukar37%

×Draw21%

Selfoss42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaukarExpected goals in this matchSelfoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

2.08

Haukar

1.93

Selfoss

2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

2.15

2.00

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Haukar

2.00

Selfoss

2.15

allows per match

Haukar

2.00

Selfoss

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haukar+0.00on par

Selfoss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haukar ↓

Selfoss →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Haukar or draw

58%

Haukar or Selfoss

79%

Draw or Selfoss

63%

Winning margin

Haukar wins by 2+

19%

Selfoss wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Haukar 1+ goals

85%

Haukar 2+ goals

57%

Haukar 3+ goals

30%

Selfoss 1+ goals

87%

Selfoss 2+ goals

61%

Selfoss 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Haukar (draw refunded)

46%

Selfoss (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haukar at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 23 matches

Selfoss away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haukar attack 2.00 + Selfoss defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.93

Selfoss attack 2.15 + Haukar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Haukar scores more

37%

level

21%

Selfoss scores more

42%

Selfoss at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Selfoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

G. Zamorano

55'

G. Zamorano

90+3'

T. E. Geirsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff