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Selfoss vs Fylkir — 1. Deild 2026

Selfoss
Selfoss
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Fylkir
Fylkir
7/11/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 12JÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Selfoss33%
×Draw22%
Fylkir45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selfoss
1.60
Fylkir
1.91

Fylkir creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 23 away

creates per match

Selfoss
1.69
Fylkir
2.04

allows per match

Selfoss
1.77
Fylkir
1.52

finishing

Selfoss+0.00on par
Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selfoss ↓

Fylkir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Selfoss or draw
55%
Selfoss or Fylkir
78%
Draw or Fylkir
67%

Winning margin

Selfoss wins by 2+
16%
Fylkir wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Selfoss 1+ goals
80%
Selfoss 2+ goals
47%
Selfoss 3+ goals
22%
Fylkir 1+ goals
85%
Fylkir 2+ goals
57%
Fylkir 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Selfoss (draw refunded)
42%
Fylkir (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selfoss at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Fylkir away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selfoss attack 1.69 + Fylkir defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60

Fylkir attack 2.04 + Selfoss defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Selfoss scores more
33%
level
22%
Fylkir scores more
45%

Fylkir at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Selfoss 3–1 Fylkir

Selfoss beat Fylkir 3-1 in 1. Deild on July 11, 2025.

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn in Selfoss, Árborg.