Fylkir 4–3 Selfoss: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Fylkir

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Selfoss

B. Eyþórsson 63', 41'

E. Ásmundsson 45', 4'

H. Tokić 90+2' (pen)

V. Jóhannsson 60'

G. Martin 47'

8/18/2022

1. Deild · Round 17Würth völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fylkir55%

×Draw21%

Selfoss24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FylkirExpected goals in this matchSelfoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.33

Fylkir

2.12

Selfoss

1.33

Fylkir creates 59% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

2.09

creates per match

1.21

1.45

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Fylkir

2.09

Selfoss

1.21

allows per match

Fylkir

1.45

Selfoss

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par

Selfoss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

Selfoss →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw

76%

Fylkir or Selfoss

79%

Draw or Selfoss

45%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+

33%

Selfoss wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals

88%

Fylkir 2+ goals

62%

Fylkir 3+ goals

35%

Selfoss 1+ goals

74%

Selfoss 2+ goals

38%

Selfoss 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)

70%

Selfoss (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Selfoss away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 2.09 + Selfoss defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.12

Selfoss attack 1.21 + Fylkir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fylkir scores more

55%

level

21%

Selfoss scores more

24%

Fylkir at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

E. Ásmundsson

32'

T. Antonsson

41'

B. Eyþórsson

43'

A. D. Audunsson

45'

E. Ásmundsson

46'

Gonzalo Zamorano← G. Tyrfingsson

46'

J. Hermannsson← A. Auðunsson

46'

Þ. Elvarsson← Þ. Antonsson

47'

G. Martin

59'

O. Sigurgeirsson

60'

V. Jóhannsson

63'

B. Eyþórsson

65'

V. Johannsson

67'

R. Sveinsson← E. Ásmundsson

71'

Á. Ásgeirsson← B. Eyþórsson

71'

Ó. Borgþórsson← B. Garðarsson

79'

D. Ólafsson← Þ. Hafþórsson

79'

Ómar Stefánsson← N. Gunnarsson

82'

T. Elvarsson

88'

R. Sveinsson← D. Majkić

88'

T. Baxter← V. Jóhannsson

90+2'

H. TokićPenalty

Fylkir

Selfoss

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Eyþórsson

▼

Gunnarsso

Manager: R. Sigmundsson

67'▲R. Sveinsson←▼E. Ásmundsson

71'▲Á. Ásgeirsson←▼B. Eyþórsson

71'▲Ó. Borgþórsson←▼B. Garðarsson

79'▲D. Ólafsson←▼Þ. Hafþórsson

79'▲Ómar Stefánsson←▼N. Gunnarsson

Fylkir substitutes

SveinssonÁsgeirssonBorgþórssonÓlafssonStefánssonBrynjólfssonIngason

Manager: D. Martin

46'▲Gonzalo Zamorano←▼G. Tyrfingsson

46'▲J. Hermannsson←▼A. Auðunsson

46'▲Þ. Elvarsson←▼Þ. Antonsson

88'▲R. Sveinsson←▼D. Majkić

88'▲T. Baxter←▼V. Jóhannsson

Selfoss substitutes

ZamoranoHermannssonElvarssonSveinssonBaxterKjartanssonSigurdsson

Match Recap: Fylkir vs Selfoss

Fylkir beat Selfoss 4-3 in 1. Deild on August 18, 2022.

Goals: E. Ásmundsson (4', 45'), B. Eyþórsson (41', 63'), G. Martin (47'), V. Jóhannsson (60'), H. Tokić (90+2' pen).

The match was played at Würth völlurinn in Reykjavík.

Fylkir vs Selfoss — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fylkir vs Selfoss