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Selaya vs Laredo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Selaya
Selaya
CANC
00:00
Laredo
Laredo
4/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 33Estadio El Castañal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Selaya25%
×Draw27%
Laredo48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selaya
0.91
Laredo
1.39

Laredo creates 53% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 51 away

creates per match

Selaya
1.03
Laredo
1.65

allows per match

Selaya
1.12
Laredo
0.78

finishing

Selaya+0.00on par
Laredo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selaya ↓

Laredo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Selaya or draw
52%
Selaya or Laredo
73%
Draw or Laredo
75%

Winning margin

Selaya wins by 2+
8%
Laredo wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Selaya 1+ goals
60%
Selaya 2+ goals
23%
Selaya 3+ goals
6%
Laredo 1+ goals
75%
Laredo 2+ goals
40%
Laredo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Selaya (draw refunded)
34%
Laredo (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selaya at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Laredo away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selaya attack 1.03 + Laredo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Laredo attack 1.65 + Selaya defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Selaya scores more
25%
level
27%
Laredo scores more
48%

Laredo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Selaya host Laredo

April 12, 2020: Selaya take on Laredo in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Selaya host Laredo at Estadio El Castañal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.