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Laredo vs Selaya — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Laredo
Laredo
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Selaya
Selaya
11/16/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Campo San Lorenzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Laredo65%
×Draw22%
Selaya14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laredo
1.87
Selaya
0.72

Laredo creates 160% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 60 away

creates per match

Laredo
1.87
Selaya
0.73

allows per match

Laredo
0.72
Selaya
1.87

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par
Selaya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Selaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Laredo or draw
86%
Laredo or Selaya
78%
Draw or Selaya
35%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+
39%
Selaya wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals
85%
Laredo 2+ goals
56%
Laredo 3+ goals
29%
Selaya 1+ goals
51%
Selaya 2+ goals
16%
Selaya 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)
82%
Selaya (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.72 · 47 matches

Selaya away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.87 + Selaya defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.87

Selaya attack 0.73 + Laredo defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Laredo scores more
65%
level
22%
Selaya scores more
14%

Laredo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laredo vs Selaya

Laredo beat Selaya 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Campo San Lorenzo in Laredo.