Selangor 0–2 Kuala Lumpur FA: Result & Stats

Selangor

FT

0 – 2

Kuala Lumpur FA

11/14/2021

Malaysia Cup · Quarter-finalsStadium Petaling Jaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Selangor47%

×Draw24%

Kuala Lumpur FA30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SelangorExpected goals in this matchKuala Lumpur FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.32

Selangor

1.71

Kuala Lumpur FA

1.32

Selangor creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.79

creates per match

1.43

1.21

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Selangor

1.79

Kuala Lumpur FA

1.43

allows per match

Selangor

1.21

Kuala Lumpur FA

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Selangor+0.00on par

Kuala Lumpur FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selangor ↓

Kuala Lumpur FA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Selangor or draw

70%

Selangor or Kuala Lumpur FA

76%

Draw or Kuala Lumpur FA

53%

Winning margin

Selangor wins by 2+

25%

Kuala Lumpur FA wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Selangor 1+ goals

82%

Selangor 2+ goals

51%

Selangor 3+ goals

24%

Kuala Lumpur FA 1+ goals

73%

Kuala Lumpur FA 2+ goals

38%

Kuala Lumpur FA 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Selangor (draw refunded)

61%

Kuala Lumpur FA (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selangor at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Kuala Lumpur FA away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selangor attack 1.79 + Kuala Lumpur FA defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kuala Lumpur FA attack 1.43 + Selangor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Selangor scores more

47%

level

24%

Kuala Lumpur FA scores more

30%

Selangor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Selangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff