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Kuala Lumpur FA vs Selangor — Malaysia Cup 2019

Kuala Lumpur FA
Kuala Lumpur FAadvanced
FT
1 – 0
Selangor
Selangor
11/18/2021Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Quarter-finalsKLFA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kuala Lumpur FA43%
×Draw28%
Selangor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuala Lumpur FA
1.32
Selangor
1.06

Kuala Lumpur FA creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kuala Lumpur FA
1.53
Selangor
1.26

allows per match

Kuala Lumpur FA
0.87
Selangor
1.11

finishing

Kuala Lumpur FA+0.00on par
Selangor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuala Lumpur FA ↓

Selangor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kuala Lumpur FA or draw
70%
Kuala Lumpur FA or Selangor
72%
Draw or Selangor
57%

Winning margin

Kuala Lumpur FA wins by 2+
20%
Selangor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kuala Lumpur FA 1+ goals
73%
Kuala Lumpur FA 2+ goals
38%
Kuala Lumpur FA 3+ goals
15%
Selangor 1+ goals
65%
Selangor 2+ goals
29%
Selangor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kuala Lumpur FA (draw refunded)
59%
Selangor (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuala Lumpur FA at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Selangor away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuala Lumpur FA attack 1.53 + Selangor defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.32

Selangor attack 1.26 + Kuala Lumpur FA defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kuala Lumpur FA scores more
43%
level
28%
Selangor scores more
30%

Kuala Lumpur FA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kuala Lumpur FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuala Lumpur FA vs Selangor

Kuala Lumpur FA beat Selangor 1-0 in Malaysia Cup on November 18, 2021.

The match was played at KLFA Stadium in Kuala Lumpur.