Selangor 2–2 Felda United FC: Result & Stats

Selangor

2 – 2

Felda United FC

8/3/2019

Malaysia Cup · Group Stage - 1Stadium Shah Alam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Selangor48%

×Draw21%

Felda United FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SelangorExpected goals in this matchFelda United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.73

Selangor

2.15

Felda United FC

1.73

Selangor creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

1.79

creates per match

2.25

1.21

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Selangor

1.79

Felda United FC

2.25

allows per match

Selangor

1.21

Felda United FC

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Selangor+0.00on par

Felda United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selangor ↓

Felda United FC →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Selangor or draw

68%

Selangor or Felda United FC

79%

Draw or Felda United FC

52%

Winning margin

Selangor wins by 2+

28%

Felda United FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Selangor 1+ goals

88%

Selangor 2+ goals

63%

Selangor 3+ goals

36%

Felda United FC 1+ goals

82%

Felda United FC 2+ goals

52%

Felda United FC 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Selangor (draw refunded)

60%

Felda United FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Selangor at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Felda United FC away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Selangor attack 1.79 + Felda United FC defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.15

Felda United FC attack 2.25 + Selangor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Selangor scores more

48%

level

21%

Felda United FC scores more

32%

Selangor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Selangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff