Felda United FC 0–2 Selangor: Result & Stats

Felda United FC

0 – 2

Selangor

9/18/2019

Malaysia Cup · Group Stage - 6Stadium Tun Abdul Razak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Felda United FC23%

×Draw27%

Selangor50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Felda United FCExpected goals in this matchSelangor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.46

Felda United FC

0.89

Selangor

1.46

Selangor creates 64% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

0.67

creates per match

1.26

1.67

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Felda United FC

0.67

Selangor

1.26

allows per match

Felda United FC

1.67

Selangor

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Felda United FC+0.00on par

Selangor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felda United FC ↓

Selangor →

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Felda United FC or draw

50%

Felda United FC or Selangor

73%

Draw or Selangor

77%

Winning margin

Felda United FC wins by 2+

Selangor wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Felda United FC 1+ goals

59%

Felda United FC 2+ goals

22%

Felda United FC 3+ goals

Selangor 1+ goals

77%

Selangor 2+ goals

43%

Selangor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Felda United FC (draw refunded)

31%

Selangor (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Felda United FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Selangor away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Felda United FC attack 0.67 + Selangor defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Selangor attack 1.26 + Felda United FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Felda United FC scores more

23%

level

27%

Selangor scores more

50%

Selangor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Selangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff