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Selangor II vs Kedah — Malaysia Cup 2019

Selangor II
Selangor II
FT
1 – 1
Kedah
Kedah
8/16/2019Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 3Stadium Shah Alam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Selangor II27%
×Draw23%
Kedah51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selangor II
1.29
Kedah
1.86

Kedah creates 44% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Selangor II
0.67
Kedah
1.73

allows per match

Selangor II
2.00
Kedah
1.91

finishing

Selangor II+0.00on par
Kedah+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selangor II ↓

Kedah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Selangor II or draw
49%
Selangor II or Kedah
77%
Draw or Kedah
73%

Winning margin

Selangor II wins by 2+
11%
Kedah wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Selangor II 1+ goals
72%
Selangor II 2+ goals
37%
Selangor II 3+ goals
14%
Kedah 1+ goals
84%
Kedah 2+ goals
55%
Kedah 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Selangor II (draw refunded)
34%
Kedah (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selangor II at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Kedah away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selangor II attack 0.67 + Kedah defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kedah attack 1.73 + Selangor II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Selangor II scores more
27%
level
23%
Kedah scores more
51%

Kedah at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kedah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Selangor II 1–1 Kedah

Selangor II and Kedah drew 1-1 in Malaysia Cup on August 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium Shah Alam in Shah Alam.