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Kedah vs Selangor II — Malaysia Cup 2019

Kedah
Kedah
FT
3 – 2
Selangor II
Selangor II
8/20/2019Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 4Stadium Darul Aman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kedah49%
×Draw21%
Selangor II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kedah
2.21
Selangor II
1.72

Kedah creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kedah
2.08
Selangor II
1.67

allows per match

Kedah
1.77
Selangor II
2.33

finishing

Kedah+0.00on par
Selangor II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedah ↓

Selangor II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kedah or draw
70%
Kedah or Selangor II
79%
Draw or Selangor II
51%

Winning margin

Kedah wins by 2+
29%
Selangor II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kedah 1+ goals
89%
Kedah 2+ goals
65%
Kedah 3+ goals
38%
Selangor II 1+ goals
82%
Selangor II 2+ goals
51%
Selangor II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kedah (draw refunded)
62%
Selangor II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Selangor II away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedah attack 2.08 + Selangor II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.21

Selangor II attack 1.67 + Kedah defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kedah scores more
49%
level
21%
Selangor II scores more
30%

Kedah at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kedah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kedah vs Selangor II

Kedah beat Selangor II 3-2 in Malaysia Cup on August 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium Darul Aman in Alor Setar.