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Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Maccabi Herzliya — Liga Leumit 2019

Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
1/19/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 18Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona45%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Herzliya30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.49
Maccabi Herzliya
1.16

Sektzia Nes Tziona creates 28% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.39
Maccabi Herzliya
1.27

allows per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.05
Maccabi Herzliya
1.59

finishing

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par
Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sektzia Nes Tziona ↓

Maccabi Herzliya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sektzia Nes Tziona or draw
70%
Sektzia Nes Tziona or Maccabi Herzliya
74%
Draw or Maccabi Herzliya
55%

Winning margin

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
22%
Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
77%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
44%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
19%
Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
69%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
32%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
60%
Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sektzia Nes Tziona at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Maccabi Herzliya away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.39 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.49

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.27 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
45%
level
26%
Maccabi Herzliya scores more
30%

Sektzia Nes Tziona at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sektzia Nes Tziona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Maccabi Herzliya

Sektzia Nes Tziona beat Maccabi Herzliya 2-1 in Liga Leumit on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.