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Maccabi Herzliya vs Sektzia Nes Tziona — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
9/7/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 3Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Maccabi Herzliya40%
×Draw26%
Sektzia Nes Tziona35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Herzliya
1.40
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 55 away

creates per match

Maccabi Herzliya
1.33
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.13

allows per match

Maccabi Herzliya
1.45
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.47

finishing

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par
Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Herzliya ↓

Sektzia Nes Tziona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Maccabi Herzliya or draw
65%
Maccabi Herzliya or Sektzia Nes Tziona
74%
Draw or Sektzia Nes Tziona
60%

Winning margin

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
18%
Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
75%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
41%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
17%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
72%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
37%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
53%
Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Herzliya at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 55 matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.33 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.13 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maccabi Herzliya scores more
40%
level
26%
Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
35%

Maccabi Herzliya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maccabi Herzliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Herzliya vs Sektzia Nes Tziona

Maccabi Herzliya and Sektzia Nes Tziona drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on September 7, 2023.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.