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Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm — Liga Leumit 2019

Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
9/4/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 2Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona45%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.42
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.06

Sektzia Nes Tziona creates 34% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 112 away

creates per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.39
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.06

allows per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.05
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.44

finishing

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sektzia Nes Tziona ↓

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sektzia Nes Tziona or draw
72%
Sektzia Nes Tziona or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
73%
Draw or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
55%

Winning margin

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
22%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
76%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
41%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
17%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
65%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
29%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
62%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sektzia Nes Tziona at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.39 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.06 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
45%
level
27%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more
28%

Sektzia Nes Tziona at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sektzia Nes Tziona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Sektzia Nes Tziona 0–2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm beat Sektzia Nes Tziona 2-0 in Liga Leumit on September 4, 2023.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.