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Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Sektzia Nes Tziona — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1/12/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 17HaShalom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm40%
×Draw27%
Sektzia Nes Tziona32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.30
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.13

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm creates 15% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 55 away

creates per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.13
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.13

allows per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.13
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.47

finishing

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par
Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm ↓

Sektzia Nes Tziona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or draw
68%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or Sektzia Nes Tziona
73%
Draw or Sektzia Nes Tziona
60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
18%
Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
73%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
37%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
14%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
68%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
31%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
56%
Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 109 matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.13 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.13 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more
40%
level
27%
Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
32%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Umm al-Fahm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–2 Sektzia Nes Tziona

Sektzia Nes Tziona beat Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2-0 in Liga Leumit on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at HaShalom Stadium in Umm al-Fahm.