Sektzia Nes Tziona 2–1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Sektzia Nes Tziona

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

11/13/2020

Liga Leumit · Round 8Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona43%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sektzia Nes TzionaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Nazareth Illit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.14

Sektzia Nes Tziona

1.40

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.14

Sektzia Nes Tziona creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 113 away

1.39

creates per match

1.23

1.05

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona

1.39

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.23

allows per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona

1.05

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sektzia Nes Tziona ↓

Hapoel Nazareth Illit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sektzia Nes Tziona or draw

69%

Sektzia Nes Tziona or Hapoel Nazareth Illit

73%

Draw or Hapoel Nazareth Illit

57%

Winning margin

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+

20%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals

75%

Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals

41%

Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals

17%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals

68%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals

32%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)

58%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sektzia Nes Tziona at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.39 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.23 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more

43%

level

27%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more

31%

Sektzia Nes Tziona at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sektzia Nes Tziona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff